Probabilistic design for underground and open pit mines


Catrin Edelbro




Purpose and goal

The aim of this project is to evaluate the potential and opportunities of using probabilistic safety assessment methods in Swedish underground and open pit mines in hard rock conditions. The specific objective is to describe mining specific issues and conditions suitable for probabilistic analysis and to give suggestions on how to integrate probabilistic design into risk assessment and decision making.

Expected results and effects

Results from a case study review of probabilistic methods in civil engineering and mining will be presented. Also result from a benchmark on probabilistic design methods as support in risk-based decision making is reported. The prestudy will be another step for the mining industry in rock mechanics decision making and to introduce new methods that take risk assessment, work environment, and safety into account.

Planned approach and implementation

The project is divided in four work packages (WPs) with first possible start date in March, 2022. The content in WPs are: Project Coordination, Benchmark and case study review, Description of mining specific issues and conditions suitable for probabilistic analysis, Reporting and External Communication. The deliverables are one final report and one technical conference paper